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Story audio is generated using AI The joy of Saturday’s series opener at Ellis Park is that once the first of four successive Tests has been played, the real analysis can happen. Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus spoke of the importance of the first Test, but was sure to remind the South African rugby public that a Test series and a World Cup is never won in the opening game. He referenced the Springboks losing to the All Blacks in the 2019 Pool match in Japan and winning the World Cup final against England. He reminded those who may need reminding that the Springboks lost the opening Test in 2021 against the British & Irish Lions but won the three-Test series 2-1. The consensus among the South African media is that Saturday’s Test will be the closest of the three in South Africa and that the superior depth of the hosts will tell as the series unfolds. New Zealand’s media on tour have a different view. The narrative is that a winning start for the All Blacks would shift the momentum of the series in New Zealand’s favour. The attrition rate is expected to be high and four successive Tests of this physical magnitude are bound to have casualties. All Blacks coach Dave Rennie predictably entrusted the core of the match 23 that thumped Ireland 40-21 in the final home Nations Championship match. He has picked 14 of the 15 starters and 19 of the 23 from that win at Eden Park in Auckland. Two of the four not selected are out due to injury. Erasmus has gone for those players who beat England 45-21 at Ellis Park in the Nations Championship opening round. Neither of the combinations that won so emphatically against England and Ireland respectively has played since. Erasmus mixed and matched in the Tests against Scotland, Wales and Argentina, and Rennie used 41 players in the three tour matches against the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls. South Africa’s physicality against England was standout and their second half performance oozed tactical balance and composure. The All Blacks dismantled Ireland in the opening 30 minutes with tempo, a direct approach and a very good kicking game. Ellis Park was once the bogey ground for the All Blacks, but in the Richie McCaw era it became an away fortress for the New Zealanders. Saturday will feature the world’s No 1 team playing the No 2 team and the two possess opposite rugby identities. It makes for a compelling spectacle because both have very different strengths. New Zealand media has focused heavily on the Springboks supposedly avoiding pace or tempo, suggesting the Boks aim for a stop-start approach to limit the opposition’s attacking rhythm. This view is ignorant because the Springboks’ 33 wins in their last 37 Test matches tell a very different story. When the Boks dismantled and humiliated the All Blacks 43-10 in Wellington, New Zealand, last year there was nothing slow or stop-start about their effort. When they beat the All Blacks 31-27 at Ellis Park in 2024, there was nothing pedestrian about the match or their approach. Rennie has identified a group of players he believes have the skill set to beat the Boks. He has spoken of it being consistent with how the All Blacks have always played when at their best. He has been insistent that his players have the physicality and mental strength to match the Springboks. The two squads are very different from the match 23s that played in the 2024 Test at Ellis Park. There is more than a 50 percent change in both match-day squads. The selection of Ruben Love at No 10 for the All Blacks and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at No 10 for the Springboks tells you that this won’t be a stop-start affair. Both love to entertain and back themselves with the ball in hand. Nigel Owens, when at the peak of his refereeing powers, described the All Blacks’ 38-27 win against the Springboks at Ellis Park in 2013 as the greatest Test he had officiated. The class in each position across both camps is so high that the match could challenge the 2013 showdown in terms of excellence and spectacle. Ellis Park was once the bogey ground for the All Blacks, but in the Richie McCaw era it became an away fortress for the New Zealanders. There was the 38-27 win, McCaw’s late try to seal a 27-20 win in 2015 and the magnificent 35-23 win in 2022, which came a week after the Boks had won 26-10 against the All Blacks in Nelspruit. The Boks have won just two of the last five against the All Blacks at Ellis Park and in 2014 they needed an 81st-minute, 55-metre penalty from Pat Lambie to secure the 27-25. The 2024 victory at Ellis Park looked unlikely with the All Blacks leading 27-17 going into the last quarter. The power of the Boks’ replacements changed the nature of the contest. I expect a similar on-field narrative on Saturday, with the All Blacks starting powerfully and the Springboks finishing powerfully.