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WTC scenarios: Bangladesh blow race wide open as Australia's lead slips

ESPN · S Rajesh · 2026-08-20T11:55:22+00:00 · nguồn gốc

Australia's shocking defeat against Bangladesh in Darwin has opened up the WTC points table, with Australia's qualification to the final now not such a certainty. They still top the table, but their lead has slipped to a couple of percentage points, with South Africa and New Zealand close behind. India, meanwhile, stayed in the hunt with the win in Galle. Here is a look at where the teams stand, with 36 Tests still remaining in the current cycle. Australia Tests: 9, W-L-D: 7-2-0, Pct 77.78 Remaining series: vs Ban (h), SA (a), NZ (h), Ind (a) (13 Tests) Australia remain on top of the WTC table despite the Darwin defeat, but their path to the final suddenly doesn't look so straightforward, especially given the comprehensive manner of their defeat, and the tough challenges that lie ahead for them. To get to 60% they need 75 more points, which they can achieve with six wins and a draw in their remaining 13 Tests. That still looks a comfortable ask, but those 13 Tests include five in India early next year - a country where they have only won two of their last 12 Tests - and three in South Africa. Seven wins will take them to 63.63, while eight wins and five losses will leave them on 68.18. (All calculations assume they aren't docked any points.) South Africa Tests: 4, W-L-D: 3-1-0, Pct 75.00 Remaining series: vs Aus (h), Ban (h), Eng (h), SL (a) (10 Tests) South Africa's three away series this cycle are all in the subcontinent - in Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and they've done exceptionally well in that examination so far, drawing 1-1 in Pakistan and shocking India 2-0. That means they have the luxury of playing eight of their 10 remaining Tests at home, though three of those are against table-toppers Australia. To get to 60%, South Africa need 65 more points, which they can get with five wins and a couple of draws. Six wins and four losses in their remaining matches will take them to 64.28%, while a 7-3 output will mean 71.43, and near-certain qualification. New Zealand Tests: 6, W-L-D: 4-1-1, Pct 72.22 Remaining series: vs Ind (h), Aus (a), SL (h), Pak (a) (10 Tests) New Zealand are currently sitting pretty after series wins against West Indies (home) and England (away), but among their 10 remaining matches is a tough four-Test examination in Australia. From the remaining 120 points on offer, they'll need 64 to achieve 60%, which they can get with five wins and a draw. Four of those victories could come in their home season, if they win all Tests against India and Sri Lanka. For a place in the final, though, they'll probably need more than just home success: with six wins and three losses they'll finish on 64.58%, while seven wins and three losses will leave them on 70.83%. Bangladesh Tests: 5, W-L-D: 3-1-1, Pct 66.67 Remaining series: vs Aus (a), WI (h), SA (a), Eng (h) (7 Tests) Bangladesh's stunning win in Darwin keeps them firmly in contention for a possible top-two finish in this cycle. To get to 60%, they need 47 more points - wins in each of their four remaining home Tests, against West Indies and England, will get them there. If they win one more Test apart from those four, their percentage will shoot up to 69.44, which will give them an excellent chance of qualification. The key, though, will be to ensure they maximise the returns from their home matches. India Tests: 10, W-L-D: 5-4-1, Pct 53.33 Remaining series: vs SL (a), NZ (a), Aus (h) (8 Tests) The win in Galle has lifted India's percentage to 53.33 (from 48.15 before the Test), but they still have much work to do to have a shot at the final. With eight matches to go, India need 66 more points to get to 60%. They can achieve that with five wins and two draws (68 points), or six wins (72). In the last cycle, the finalists finished with 69.44 (South Africa) and 67.54% (Australia). Six wins and two losses will take India to 62.96%, while seven wins and a loss will see them finish on 68.52%, assuming they aren't docked any penalty points. Of the eight Tests left for India in this cycle, seven are against teams which are currently in the top three - two away Tests against third-placed New Zealand, and five at home against toppers Australia. Thus, despite the encouraging result in Galle, there's still very little margin for error through the rest of their campaign. Sri Lanka Tests: 5, W-L-D: 1-2-2, Pct 33.33 Remaining series: vs Ind (h), Pak (a), NZ (a), SA (h) (7 Tests) With only 20 points in the bag after five Tests, Sri Lanka have left themselves with plenty to do in the second half of the cycle. In seven remaining Tests, they need 67 points to touch 60%, which means they need five wins and two draws, or six wins. Six wins and a loss will take them to 63.89%, while wins in all seven Tests will lift them to 72.22. To start with, though, they'll have to do much in the second Test of the ongoing series against India. England Tests: 13, W-L-D: 4-8-1, Pct 24.36 Remaining series: vs Pak (h), SA (a), Ban (a) (8 Tests) As if a 4-8 win-loss record wasn't bad enough, England have also been horribly tardy with over-rates in this WTC cycle, being docked 14 points so far. That means 52 points from four wins and a draw has been reduced to 38. Even if they win each of their eight remaining Tests without losing further penalty points, they'll only finish on 53.17%, which is highly unlikely to be enough for a spot in the final. Pakistan Tests: 6, W-L-D: 2-4-0, Pct 22.22 Remaining series: vs Eng (a), SL (h), NZ (h) (7 Tests) With two wins and four losses Pakistan have had a poor campaign so far, further compounded by eight penalty points. If they win all seven remaining Tests, they'll finish on 64.1%. Six wins and a draw will leave them on 58.97, while six wins and a loss will drop the percentage further to 56.41. West Indies Tests: 12, W-L-D: 2-8-2, Pct 20.83 Remaining series: vs Ban (a) (2 Tests) With just two Tests remaining, the maximum that West Indies can finish on is 32.14%.