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Record-breaking title up for grabs; McLaren’s big comeback: F1 Burning Questions Formula 1 returns for the second half of the season with this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix. It’ll be over before you know it. On the schedule are 12 grands prix in just 15 weeks, a punishing transcontinental program that will decide the sport’s biggest questions. Fox Sports, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every practice, qualifying session and race in the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship™ LIVE in 4K. New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1. And the first, of course, is the biggest question of all. CAN ANYONE BEAT ANTONELLI TO THE TITLE? Andrea Kimi Antonelli never expected to be leading the championship at the halfway mark of the season. He certainly would never have imagined he’d be doing so with such a commanding margin. With a 50-point lead over Lewis Hamilton and 59 points over teammate George Russell, he is — at least according to historical statistics — in an unimpeachable position. No-one has ever lost a lead this large, and no driver has ever mounted a comeback so audacious. But then again, no-one has ever won the title so young — Antonelli won’t turn 20 years old until next week. History is certain. It just depends what sort of history we get. PIT TALK PODCAST: Formula 1 returns from its midseason break this weekend with the Dutch Grand Prix, but there’s more to be decided than just the championship. | Listen to Pit Talk here > Antonelli has shown no real sign of weakness this year. While he’s had relatively few setbacks, those he has suffered have been ridden and overcome easily, and he’s been comfortably the better Mercedes driver for almost the entire season. The only question is whether he can stand up to the pressure of closing out the title, the objective of his very short career. Whether he’s asked that question will likely depend on two drivers. One is Hamilton, his closest challenger. Hamilton has been in much-improved form this season, and the Ferrari car has been fastest at circuits less sensitive to engine power, enough for the team to have won two of the last five races. But its key weakness — and it’s a weakness that underpins everything — is engine performance. Ferrari has been shipping significant time to Mercedes down the straights all season. Much, then, will depend on whether Ferrari’s last upgrade of the season, due in Monza early next month, can meaningfully close that gap. The other driver is teammate Russell, the pre-season title favourite. The more experienced Briton hasn’t been anywhere near as comfortable in the 2026 car as Antonelli, and though some of his deficit is down to misfortune, most of it is down to pure pace. On the one hand, there’s little reason to expect Russell to challenge. With the same machinery as Antonelli, he’d have to suddenly dominate the Italian in a stunning form reversal. But on the other hand, if his greater experience is ever going to count for anything, it will be in the second half of the season, particularly at circuits outside Europe, which Antonelli will know less well. He must make it count. Formula 1 moves fast, and if he can’t lay a glove on his junior teammate in his first championship challenge, it’s hard to mount an argument that he’ll get another chance. HOW MANY WINS DOES McLAREN GET? Could a third team get into the mix for the title? McLaren certainly hopes — and thinks — so. McLaren’s largely anonymous first half of the season ended with the mighty bang of Lando Norris dominating the Hungarian Grand Prix. It could easily have been a one-two finish — with Oscar Piastri first or second — with a small change in circumstances and with better reliability for the Australian. It felt very much like a race that could have been plucked from either of McLaren’s previous two title-winning seasons. The stunning result came thanks to a major upgrade package that reversed course on some of the design choices the team realised were wrong as the season got going. It cost months of development time, but based on admittedly one weekend, it certainly paid off. But those months look costly now. McLaren is 159 points behind Mercedes — and 87 points behind Ferrari. Norris is 91 points off the title lead, while Piastri is 127 points adrift. These are big numbers that won’t be easily closed. It does, however, have some factors working in its favour. MORE FORMULA 1 DOMINANCE RANKING: The teammate beltings that could change the F1 silly season DRIVER RANKINGS: Where Piastri sits as new reality sinks in REPORT CARD: Humiliating moment exposes true biggest flop; Piastri puzzle WINNERS AND LOSERS: Painful Piastri truth as young gun breaks Ricciardo curse; debt Max must pay Its Hungary upgrade was the first of a three-part package, with the next bits coming to the car this weekend. If they produce anything like the Budapest uplift, then the team will be a victory contender this weekend. It has also invested in the tools required to get the most out of the Mercedes engine so that the power unit will no longer be a question mark. We’re also entering a part of the season in which Norris was in excellent form last year — and the reigning champion looks like he’s hitting his stride again. Ferrari being in the mix could be helpful too, preventing Mercedes from maximising its score. Verstappen proved last year that big comebacks are possible. The circumstances are different — there are no new rules next year for Mercedes to divert focus to — but we’re in a season of big form swings that could emulate the effect. But a speculative title challenge has to start with victories. It has one on the board. It’s hard to imagine it ending the season without adding some more. Whether it scores enough to genuinely challenge or enough only to interfere in the battle between Mercedes and Ferrari is the question. WHO SWITCHES TO 2027 FIRST? Though there are no major regulation changes next season, there will always be teams that see the value in getting a head start on next year’s car if it’s willing to take the demoralising pain of slipping backwards for the rest of the season. It’s an easier call for some teams than others. Red Bull Racing is an interesting case. The team is enduring a painful season so far. Verstappen hasn’t gone this deep into a season without a win since 2017 and has flirted with quitting the team or walking away from the sport entirely. Both he and the team are way out of title contention. The RB22 has proved an unpredictable beast. It’s difficult to set up, and even when it’s roughly in the window, it falls out of it with alarming speed. Verstappen has described it as degrading through a stint like an old tyre. Last year the team counterintuitively committed to developing deep into the season to understand the car, and it almost won the championship as a result — but it’s now paying for not having devoted enough time to 2026. It might be tempted to do the same again, but there’s a key difference between this year and last. MORE FORMULA 1 TITLE RACE: How 2026 championship will be won as fresh F1 twists loom… and why McLaren still believes DRIVER MARKET: First F1 silly season domino falls as struggling team targets ‘great things’ Verstappen’s threats to quit have been stymied by a lack of options. He has nowhere to go next season if he wants to continue racing in Formula 1. Next year, then, could be Red Bull Racing’s final chance to convince him to stay. The sugar hit of wins this year will mean nothing if 2027 starts with more struggle. It will make for a painful end to this season as the other frontrunners move into the distance, but the team can’t afford more short-term thinking. At the other end of the grid, Williams must surely be thinking along similar lines. It was supposed to be breaking free of the midfield this season under new rules. Instead it’s looking likely it will end the year as the slowest of the established teams, ahead of only Cadillac. The team could have been punished for its mistakes by drivers Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, both of whom were out of contract this season. Either leaving would have been a vote of no confidence in the direction set by principal James Vowles. But in part due to a lack of compelling alternatives, both have re-signed this week. Notwithstanding the dressing-up of the announcements as expressions of confidence in the team’s direction, you can bet both will be looking for a way out if things don’t improve next year. If the team really is confident it knows what went so disastrously wrong this year, then there’s no reason it shouldn’t be committing to getting a head start on 2027 in a bid to undo its mistakes. WHERE DOES BIG-BUCKS ASTON MARTIN END THE SEASON? If you’re looking for a wildcard in the second half of the season, this is it. Aston Martin approached 2026 brimming with optimism. It had spent big on new factories and high-profile staff, and it was a works team for the first time in its history with the title-winning Honda engine in the back of its car. It all added up to a catastrophe. The car was late, overweight and riddled with driveability problems. The engine was unreliable and underpowered. The team was beaten by Cadillac on pace for most of the year. Legendary designer Adrian Newey, taking the role of team principal for the first time in his career, committed to a B-spec car for the middle of the year in an all-in bid to turn the season around. The first stage of that upgrade arrived in Hungary and — in a massive relief for the team — was a massive step forwards. The car was almost two seconds faster over a single lap, jumping Cadillac and Williams to put the team roughly on par with Haas. With more aerodynamic upgrades coming before the end of the European season, the team has scope to move further up the order. Critical, though, will be this weekend’s debut of Honda’s B-spec engine, which the Japanese brand says will address some of the major shortcomings of the combustion motor. No figures have been released, but Honda says it met all of its power targets — and reports suggest both the manufacturer and Aston Martin are satisfied with the results of a private test conducted late last month. It’s no wonder some of the midfield teams further up the grid are concerned Aston Martin could end the season ahead. Aston Martin and billionaire owner Lawrence Stroll didn’t spend big on this season to end up in the midfield. There’s no way 2026 can end in anything other than missed targets and disappointment. But if the team can haul itself onto a steep trajectory and maintain the gains to the end of the year — if Newey can prove he really has marshalled the team in his dual role as principal and technical chief, and if Honda can prove its disastrous start was a blip rather than something chronic — then Aston Martin could make itself F1’s wildcard team for 2027. HOW MANY RACES WILL WE HAVE — AND WHERE WILL THEY BE? Officially we’ve got 12 races remaining to decide the championship and get answers to all of the above questions. No-one is assuming that number will remain at 12, however. The conflict in the Middle East has already up-ended the calendar once, with the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix called off in April after the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, triggering a regional conflict. Despite high hopes earlier this year, neither race has been rescheduled. Instead the Malaysian Grand Prix will return to a spare weekend on the calendar in early October — though in recognition of the Bahraini government paying for it, it will take the bizarre moniker of the ‘Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia’. With that question answered, the focus now turns to the season-ending rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, on 29 November and 6 December respectively. The World Endurance Championship has already called off races in Qatar and Bahrain, scheduled for late October and early November. If a decision had to be made today, Formula 1 would not race in either country owing to the largely unchanged security situation, just as the WEC has decided. However, the sport has around a month to make a call. It won’t be until the middle of September that the logistics will demand a decision — when freight will be loaded onto ships bound for the Middle East. In the meantime, the sport is making contingency plans. The most likely alternative to Qatar and Abu Dhabi is a single race in Imola, in Italy, on 6 December. It would reduce the calendar back to 22 rounds, but that’s reportedly enough to satisfy certain Formula 1 contractual obligations. The question then would be what happens to the 2027 calendar, which has yet to be announced. As it stands, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are scheduled to open the season next March, with the Australian Grand Prix following on 4 April. A decision on those races won’t need to be made until January — unless Formula 1 wants to bring some other races forward to make space for a rescheduled Middle Eastern swing later in the year. These are big, multimillion-dollar decisions on the sport’s plate in the next few months.