The Phillies' Gamble: What the Nestor Cortes Signing Means for October
Sportsnaut · Isaac Ciravolo · 2026-08-19T23:20:09+00:00 · nguồn gốc
The Philadelphia Phillies are rolling the dice. On August 19, they signed veteran left-hander Nestor Cortes to a Major League deal. The move adds a depth piece for a deep playoff run and a late push for the division lead.
Fixing the Back of the Rotation
The Phillies have a dominant top three in their starting rotation. Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler are potential Cy Young winners, and Jesús Luzardo is dominating once again. But the back end is struggling. Veteran Aaron Nola currently has a 5.04 FIP. Young, highly-touted, prospect Andrew Painter has a 5.38 FIP. The addition of Cortes is meant to stabilize this group.
If he doesn’t crack the starting rotation, Cortes could join an already great bullpen. Even though the Phillies have the second best bullpen by fWAR, an extra arm with major league experience would give much needed rest during the most grueling part of the season.
Boosting October Odds
Pitching depth wins championships. This late-season pickup could be exactly what Philadelphia needs to take them deep into the playoffs. They are already, barring any terrible collapse, in the playoffs. The Phillies currently have a 88.6% chance of making the playoffs and hold the second NL wild card spot. Despite nearly being a shoo-in to the playoffs, the Phillies have just a 7.3% chance of winning the World Series.
Philadelphia’s front office snagged a seasoned arm without trading away any prospects. Cortes was a highly effective All-star back in 2022 and came in ninth for Cy Young voting. During that breakout season, he posted a 3.13 FIP with a sub-one WHIP and 163 strikeouts over 158.1 innings. For his career, he owns a mediocre 4.34 FIP and a 17.1% K-BB rate across 602.1 innings. If he finds even a fraction of that old magic, the Phillies become a much more dangerous team in the postseason.
The Health Question
However, the injury history is risky. Cortes suffered a severe left elbow flexor strain in 2025. This injury ended his season. He was limited to just eight starts and an ugly 8.29 FIP for the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres.
He had surgery for a torn tendon in his throwing arm in October 2025. Since then, he has spent all of 2026 rehabbing in free agency. He is reportedly fully healthy now. Still, relying on a pitcher fresh off major arm surgery takes a massive lead of faith.
The Mental Question
Beyond the physical injuries, there is a mental hurdle. Baseball is an unforgiving game, and October scars can last a lifetime. In Game 1 of the 2024 World Series, he gave up a crushing, walk-off grand slam to Freddie Freeman. Shaking off a moment of that magnitude takes immense mental toughness.
Now, he will pitch in front of one of the toughest fanbases in sports. The Phillies are betting that “Nasty Nestor” has healed both his elbow and his confidence.