An Updated State of Play with One Round To Go
geelongcats.com.au · None · 2026-08-17T02:25:33+00:00 · nguồn gốc
What a fascinating time of year it is, as the AFL gears up for a massive final round of the home-and-away season this weekend.
The top 10 are now officially locked in but other than the top two spots on the ladder, no team is secure in their position and there is still plenty to play out in Round 24.
Geelong are firmly entrenched in the battle but took a big step forward last week, moving inside the top six with their victory over North Melbourne and Adelaide's defeat at the hands of Fremantle.
With a clash against Richmond awaiting on Saturday afternoon, the Cats can still logistically finish anywhere from third to eighth on the ladder, with every position having big ramifications for how September might play out.
Take a look through all the possibilities below ahead of Geelong's final regular season match on Saturday at GMHBA Stadium.
With a Win
Finishing Range: 3rd - 7th
If Geelong can get the job done against Richmond on Saturday, it will most likely see them secure a top six spot and help them avoid the Wildcard Weekend.
The final finishing position will then be determined by other results, with the trio of Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne all sitting a game ahead entering Round 24. Brisbane will head to the MCG to face Collingwood, Melbourne will take on the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn head west to do battle with the Eagles.
If all three were to lose, the Cats could ascend as high as third position and if two were defeated, Geelong could still scrape into the top four and earn a double chance. With a Cats win and one or none of those teams losing, it will most likely see Geelong finish either fifth or sixth and host an Elimination Final.
There is still the small possibility that Adelaide can win their final game and leapfrog the Cats, but Geelong hold a 5.1% advantage over the Crows entering Round 24, meaning Adelaide would need to win by roughly 80 points or more.
With a Draw
Finishing Range: 6th - 7th
A draw might seem like an unlikely outcome, but given there were two across the competition last weekend alone, it is worth exploring the possibilities in this scenario.
If Geelong were to split the points with Richmond on Saturday, it would see them finish with 58 points for the year which would not be enough to catch any of the teams above them, meaning sixth would be the highest position they could finish.
It would also be enough however to move out of striking distance from Collingwood in eighth, meaning that Adelaide's match with GWS would be the only one with any bearing on Geelong's finishing position.
With a Cats draw and Crows win, Geelong would finish in seventh and play in the Wildcard Round, but a Crows draw or loss to the Giants would see Geelong hang on to sixth spot.
With a Loss
Finishing Range: 6th - 8th
The outcomes of this result are remarkably similar to the draw above, but it does also bring Collingwood into play in eighth position.
Geelong sit a game and 14% clear of the Magpies, so it would need to be a pair of dramatic results, but it is still an unlikely mathematical change that Collingwood can jump the Cats and push them down to eighth.
The other outcomes remain the same, an Adelaide win would push the Cats to seventh or a Crows loss would most likely see them hang on to sixth, but there are far fewer possibilities than a winning situation for the Cats.