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Frederick: Kevin O’Connell is a rare Year 5 coach with no playoff wins. To change that, this evolution must sustain

Twin Cities · Jace Frederick · 2026-09-11T11:03:13+00:00 · nguồn gốc

Kevin O’Connell wades into rare waters Sunday against Green Bay – a fifth-year head coach without a playoff win on his resume. He’s the first to get Year 5 with a team without any postseason success since Jay Gruden, who was fired midway through his sixth season by Washington in 2019. Fellow 2022 coaching cycle hire Mike McDaniel was let go by Miami this offseason after four years and no playoff wins. Like O’Connell, McDaniel led the Dolphins to a pair of playoff appearances during his tenure. It was a similar experience for Matt Nagy, who twice brought the Bears to the playoffs, but didn’t win a game once he got there. He was fired at the conclusion of the 2021 campaign, his fourth season on the job. O’Connell is the exception in this hyper-reactionary era of professional sports. His case is even rarer when you consider Minnesota relieved general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah of his duties in January after the Vikings opened the 2025 season with a 4-8 record and ultimately missed the playoffs. That same day, Mark Wilf – the Vikings’ president and co-owner – said the team maintained “tremendous confidence” in O’Connell. “He’s done an excellent job as our head coach,” Wilf said. The results speak for themselves. O’Connell is 43-25 in the regular season, good for the 23rd best winning percentage in NFL history (63.2%). That’s just behind Andy Reid and ahead of the likes of Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin. He engineered top-six passing offenses in both 2022 and 2024. O’Connell has, seemingly, created a winning culture in the Vikings’ locker room. The way he rallied the troops after that abysmal start last season to close the campaign with five consecutive wins was admirable. You can see why an ownership group would hesitate to remove such a coach from the helm. “But,” Wilf said in January, “we need to have the entire organization – and he included – everyone is accountable here.” Because O’Connell has played his part in Minnesota’s shortcomings. Folks will point to the development – or lack thereof – of J.J. McCarthy. But it’s quite possible that was a poor draft pick, or at least not a prospect ready to lead an NFL offense. Minnesota’s quarterback position was a revolving door in 2025. First, it was McCarthy, then Carson Wentz. Eventually, Max Brosmer and McCarthy went back and forth, depending on McCarthy’s health. It was not a situation conducive to elite offensive production. But it also didn’t need to be the death knell it proved to be for Minnesota’s season. Not given the quality of the Vikings’ defense. Seven of the top nine defenses – per estimated points added – made the playoffs in 2025, per NFElo. The two exceptions: Cleveland and Minnesota. In fact, the Vikings defensive estimated points added (-0.0977) was the best mark to miss the postseason since the 2022 New England Patriots. The defense’s efforts were torpedoed by special teams blunders and an offensive aggression that did not match the unit’s capabilities. The Vikings inexplicably led the league in turnovers last year (30). En route to that 4-8 start, O’Connell dialed up pass plays 61% of the time – fifth most in the NFL through the end of November. In contrast, the run-pass ratio over the closing five weeks went as follows: Win over Washington: 34 runs, 23 passes Win over Dallas: 28 runs, 24 passes Win over the Giants: 31 runs, 23 passes Win over Detroit: 28 runs, 16 passes Win over Green Bay: 31 runs, 31 passes It was after that Detroit win on Christmas – in which Brosmer threw for 51 yards – that O’Connell spoke of complementary football and doing whatever was required to win that specific week. It was a stark departure from his norm. O’Connell is an aggressive playcaller by nature. The former quarterback still loves pushing the ball down the field via the pass. He takes pride in touting a high-octane offense. It’s great when it works, as it often has over the last four years. But it puts Minnesota in precarious positions when it doesn’t. You may recall the Vikings getting blitzed by Detroit and the Rams in consecutive weeks to end an otherwise spectacular 2024 season with a flameout. What you may not remember: Minnesota trailed Detroit 10-9 midway through the third quarter in the division-determining regular season finale, despite twice turning the ball over on downs to that point. On those two possessions, the Vikings tallied eight snaps inside the Lions’ 5-yard line – six were passes, five of which fell incomplete. The following week, they ran the ball 10 times for 60 yards over their first five drives, yet trailed Los Angeles 24-3 at the break. How? Those rushes were far out-weighed by 22 passing attempts that produced six sacks – including one fumble returned for a touchdown and another on 4th down for a turnover on downs in Vikings’ territory that led to another Rams’ score – to go with an interception. Minnesota scripted itself into a sinkhole. To beat elite NFL teams – a requirement to advance in the postseason – is to adapt. To know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em depending on the matchup and situation. To stay in the fight long enough to find a way – any way – to win. There are certain Sundays in which it behooves Minnesota to have O’Connell unleash his scintillating aerial assault. Perhaps such occurrences will be more frequent this fall with Kyler Murray under center. But there will be other instances when a governor should be attached to the coach’s playsheet to allow Minnesota to lean into its dominant defense in an attempt to grind out a game. “I think that’s one of the things that … I probably am so appreciative about the experience of the four years leading up to this year,” O’Connell said this week. “Because you’ve got to learn some things as far as not only just how you approach trying to win one game every Sunday, and they’re all different – every weekend is a challenge schematically, personnel-wise, where your team’s at from a health standpoint, where your team’s at at certain positions.” The formula changes accordingly. But the solution is always the same – whatever it takes to win. O’Connell has earned ownership’s faith to this point. If he aims to keep it – and to reward it at the highest level – that’s the evolution he needs to show he’s indeed made, particularly when the stakes are at their highest. Perhaps … lesson learned? “Ultimately, all we’re tasked with doing is trying to win a game for 60 minutes every week. It sounds like a cliche until you learn [that] it doesn’t matter what the stat box looks like. It doesn’t matter what an EPA looks like.,” O’Connell said. “You learn that none of those other things matter, because winning is the only thing that matters. That’s what we were able to learn as a team (at the end of last season). “But, most importantly, probably me … figuring out different ways to win, however we had to.”