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The Bengals Offense And 28 Points September 11th, 2026For Joe, the key is 28 points. Or, more importantly, can the Bucs hold the explosive Bengals offense to under 28 points? Joe thinks that’s the key right there. Why does Joe use under-28 points as the bar? Well, over the summer, former handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp had a very interesting defensive stat and how it affects quarterbacks. There is only one quarterback in the NFL who has a winning percentage when his defense allows 28 or more points. There is also only one quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense gives up 28 points. The lone winning quarterback is Josh Allen. The quarterback who has a .500 record when his defense allows 28 points is Jalen Hurts. Every other quarterback in the NFL has a losing record when their defenses allow 28 points. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is 1-12 in games when his defense coughs up 28 points. Slowing down Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense is easier said than done. “[It’s a] big challenge, huge challenge,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said this week. “I mean, those guys have been together for a long time in that offense. “[Joe] Burrow and [Ja’Marr] Chase have been together since college, so they’ve been doing it for a long time. [They are] very precise, know each other very well – not just those two, but [Tee] Higgins and the rest of the guys as well, [Chase] Brown, the rest of the team, very good chemistry there, very good chemistry there. We’ve just got to line up and be very sound at what we do, and we’ve got to make plays.” Good luck. Last year, the Bucs’ defense was the worst in Todd Bowles’ regime, averaging 24 points allowed. There have been massive changes to the defense, specifically the front-seven. The front-seven is not what Joe is worried about with the Bucs’ defense. It’s the Bucs’ corners facing probably the best one-two punch in the NFL, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. If the Bengals ring up 28 points, it is unlikely the Bucs can win, based on history. team win % by QB when defense allows 28+ points: 0.538 – Josh Allen (7-6) 0.500 – Jalen Hurts (7-7) 0.429 – Patrick Mahomes (3-4) 0.360 – Jared Goff (9-16) 0.333 – Davis Mills (2-4) 0.333 – Brock Purdy (3-6) 0.308 – Lamar Jackson (4-9) 0.286 – Sam Darnold (2-5) 0.286 – Kirk…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2026