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The 2025 NFL season was one of the stranger ones in recent memory. The AFC was an upside down mess, with the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots both going 14-3, and with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes all missing the playoffs. Wagering week to week was a slippery slope. So, If betting on individual games in 2025 scared the bejeezus out of you, I have some season win total bets that might feel like a safer, slower burn, keeping you from chasing your tail every week. Here are my five favorite season win total bets for the 2026 season, starting with the NFL team right here in our own backyard: Texans OVER 9.5 -140 On an ultra simple level, using history, this is an easy one for me. DeMeco Ryans has coached teams that have gone over their total in all three of his seasons as head coach — OVER 6.5 in 2023, OVER 9.5 in 2023, and OVER 9.5 last season — and twice he’s gone over by at least 2.5 wins. Ryans has established himself as one of the most consistent coaches in the league, and the best one to not make a conference title, a label he’d love to shed this season. I am predicting a 12-5 season for the Texans, and the only thing giving me trepidation on the OVER is not C.J. Stroud’s 2025 playoff performance, but instead it’s the schedule in December and January, which includes four cold weather road games, three of them at night in prime time. Falcons UNDER 7.5 -130 Kevin Stefanski managed to get another NFL team to ignore the utter dumpster fire he oversaw in Cleveland the last two seasons (sure, Deshaun Watson was an issue, at least in 2024), and focus on his two NFL Coach of the Year awards in 2020 and 2023. To be clear, I don’t think Stefanski is the guy who’s going to squeeze whatever life is left in Tua Tagovailoa. If he couldn’t do it with Deshaun Watson, he isn’t doing it with Tua. Add in Jalen Walker suffering a seaosn ending ACL tear, and James Pearce’s eight game suspension, and the defense just took two big hits. The Falcons are the only NFC South team for whom I CANNOT concoct an optimistic outlook. Patriots UNDER 10.5 -110 I bet this UNDER the second 2026 season win totals came out, the week after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to a Seattle Seahawks team that made Drake Maye look pedestrian, which it just so happens EVERY other playoff opponent did last postseason, including the Texans. The Patriots played one of the worst schedules in the history of the NFL in 2025, and to their credit, they went 14-3. However, they went 7-3 in one score games, a number that tends to even out year to year, and the overall slate of opponents is MUCH more difficult this season. For those of you who think that Mike Vrabel’s extramarital affair with Dianna Russini, former NFL insider for The Athletic, is a factor in my bet, remember, I said I made this bet in February. Vrabel’s dalliance with Russini was just an added bonus. Chargers OVER 9.5 -125 I’m always hesitant to place any sort of positive bet on the Chargers, as there is no team in NFL history that’s suffered more weird bad luck than the Chargers, going well back into their days in San Diego. There are two big reasons I am taking the OVER on the Chargers. First, I have great respect for Jim Harbaugh’s coaching abilities. There’s a good chance that he’s a liar, cheater and moderately despicable human being, but he is undeniably a really good head coach. Second, the Chargers lost their two Pro Bowl offensive tackles for the season last year, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and still went 11-6 and made the playoffs. Getting both of them back healthy is like a playoff team signing two top tier tackles in free agency. Dolphins UNDER 3.5 +110 For the most part, any NFL team whose win totals are between, say, 6 to 6.5 and, say, 10 to 10.5, are probably just a few plays away from finishing at either end of that spectrum. In its vast midsection of 20 to 22 teams, the NFL is very even. A 6-11 team is not that different from an 11-6 team. However, truly bad teams are just flat out hopeless and bad. I’ve NEVER seen a team with a Vegas win total amount of less than 4.5. The Dolphins are a full win below that (albeit with a slightly positive vig of +110). The Dolphins stripped their roster to the studs, trading and cutting everybody of prominence, except for their lead running back (Devon Achane) who they paid $64 million for some reason. They paid a quarterback (Malik Willis) over $20 million per year in free agency. They are carrying over $180 million in dead money on their salary cap this season. If I can find a wager for them going 0-17, I’ll take it.