2026 NFL season preview: Super Bowl picks, Patriots win totals and award predictions
Boston Herald · Andrew Callahan; Doug Kyed · 2026-09-06T09:02:27+00:00 · nguồn gốc
Football is back, and the Patriots are first up.
The NFL season kicks off Wednesday night with the Pats visiting Seattle in a rematch of Super Bowl LX. Much has changed since that 29-13 loss in the Bay Area, including the arrivals of wide receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs and All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. The Patriots are hoping offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson can make Year 2 leaps in a way Drake Maye did last year.
But will that even be enough for a Super Bowl return?
The Bills and Ravens have been slotted as the AFC favorites at most sportsbooks, while the Chargers and Chiefs are also ahead of the Patriots, according to some oddsmakers. Bo Nix is also back healthy for a Broncos team that looks improved on paper, and Joe Burrow has returned to lead Cincinnati, a popular dark horse pick in the AFC.
In the NFC, the Rams have reloaded with future Hall of Famers in Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald, the Cowboys are poised to challenge the Eagles, any of the Bears, Packers, Lions or Vikings could wear the division crown and the Seahawks might just repeat as champions.
So, how does the season unfold?
The Herald’s Patriots beat writers make their 2026 NFL predictions.
AFC East
Patriots: Summer concerns about their depth, pass rush and offensive line are all valid. But if Maye makes another leap, and I suspect he will, the Pats are your division winner. The Patriots arguably have more top-end talent than Buffalo, which is now behind a first-time head coach in Joe Brady and rookie defensive coordinator Jim Leonard. That’s a lot of inexperience for a staff trying to match wits with Mike Vrabel and one of the NFL’s deepest coaching rosters, even if Josh Allen remains the best player in the league. — Callahan
Patriots: The Patriots likely won’t win as many games as they did last season because of a significantly more difficult schedule, but they have the bones of a divisional winner. The Jets are still far away from being competitive, and the Dolphins might be the worst team in the NFL this season. The Bills will always be competitive with Allen at quarterback, but I’m not buying Brady as their head coach. The Patriots have some depth issues, but if they stay healthy, then they can absolutely best the Bills for the AFC East title. — Kyed
AFC North
Ravens: A Lamar Jackson bounce-back season is all Baltimore needs to reclaim the North. At 42, it’s only logical Aaron Rodgers will take another step back in Pittsburgh, especially under the stale coaching of Mike McCarthy. Burrow is too great an injury risk to bet on Cincinnati, and the Ravens’ talent around Jackson should be too good for new coach Jesse Minter to finish with fewer than 10 wins. — Callahan
Bengals: The Bengals made major strides to improve their defense this offseason, trading for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, signing edge defender Boye Mafe, safety Bryan Cook and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and drafting edge defender Cashius Howell and cornerback Tacario Davis. If the defense holds up their end of the bargain, then the offense, led by Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, should lead the Bengals to a divisional win. — Kyed
AFC South
Texans: The Jaguars are primed for regression, while Houston reinforced its offensive line, backfield and receiving corps since losing in Foxboro during the divisional round to help take pressure off of C.J. Stroud. Throw in the NFL’s best defense, which has returned entirely intact, and this division will run through Houston again. — Callahan
Texans: It will be truly fascinating to see how Stroud rebounds from a disastrous playoff loss to the Patriots last season. The offense took a hit when Jayden Higgins went down with a season-ending torn ACL, but the Patriots helped out their conference foes by trading them wide receiver Kayshon Boutte. The Texans’ defense is too good, and they have excellent leadership in DeMeco Ryans. — Kyed
AFC West
Chargers: The hiring of ex-Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator will prove to be the most significant addition any team made this offseason. Mark it down. Justin Herbert will have more time to throw, more open receivers and an improved run game. He’s already a hot pick for MVP, and whether he wins it or not, the Bolts will finally get over the hump. In the end, expect Los Angeles to edge out Denver for the division title, while the Chiefs realize replenishing their aging talent pool will take longer than they realized. — Callahan
Broncos: The Broncos’ pass rush took a hit this offseason, losing John Franklin-Myers in free agency, and with Jonathon Cooper beginning the season on the commissioner’s exempt list, but they bolstered their offense by trading for Jaylen Waddle, which should help quarterback Bo Nix considerably. I’m still not buying Herbert, and the Chiefs didn’t do enough this offseason to regain the division lead. — Kyed
AFC Wild Card
Broncos, Bengals, Chiefs: The Broncos’ defense won’t let them fall out of the playoffs, while Cincinnati outlasts Jacksonville in a tight Wild Card race and Patrick Mahomes does enough to get into the postseason before a Round 1 knockout. — Callahan
Bills, Ravens, Chargers: Allen, Jackson and Herbert aren’t missing the playoffs. Mahomes does for the second straight year. The rebuild in Kansas City continues. — Kyed
NFC East
Cowboys: The preseason hype is deserved. Dallas might lead the league in scoring, and rookie defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a massive upgrade for a unit that could not only swing this division race, but the entire NFC. — Callahan
Eagles: The Eagles’ offense didn’t look pretty in joint practices with the Patriots, but overall, that team is talented enough to figure it out. The Cowboys can never get over the hump, and there are serious questions with the Commanders, even though Jayden Daniels should have them playing better this season. — Kyed
NFC North
Packers: A home win over the Lions in the regular-season finale clinches the division for Green Bay. — Callahan
Bears: I believe in Ben Johnson. The Bears’ head coach helped his team beat out the Packers, Lions and Bears in a really difficult division last season. It will be fun to watch what Johnson can do with quarterback Caleb Williams in Year 2 and an impressive arsenal of weapons, including wide receivers Luther Burden and Rome Odunze and tight end Colston Loveland. — Kyed
NFC South
Buccaneers: Tampa Bay should have won this division last year, and doesn’t get in its own way this season as the only team to finish with a winning record. Expect Baker Mayfield to be at his best, fired up by the lack of progress in recent contract negotiations with the front office. — Callahan
Buccaneers: The NFC South has gotten slightly stronger, but the Bucs have the division’s best quarterback in Mayfield, and sometimes that’s all that matters. Mike Evans is gone at wide receiver, but Mayfield still has an impressive wide receiver corps with Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan. The Panthers snuck in and won this division last year. I don’t have confidence that Bryce Young can pull it off again. — Kyed
NFC West
Rams: The overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl LXI isn’t losing its division. — Callahan
Rams: Have you seen their defense? The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks should be great again in 2026, and the 49ers will always be competitive, but the Rams’ front seven will be ferocious with Myles Garrett and Byron Young coming off the edge and Aaron Donald back to bring pressure up the middle. Plus, they still have Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on offense. — Kyed
NFC Wild Card
Eagles, Seahawks, Lions: A tough race here leaves the Bears on the outside looking in as the NFC team most primed for regression after an explosive start under coach Ben Johnson. Otherwise, the Eagles and Seahawks are shoo-ins as well-run organizations with stocked coaching staffs and deep talent pools. The Lions, in a bounce-back season under Dan Campbell, return to the playoffs. — Callahan
Lions, Packers, Seahawks: The Lions and Packers make it through the gauntlet that is the NFC North, and Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba get the Seahawks back in the playoffs. — Kyed
Super Bowl matchup
Rams over Broncos: Another Super Bowl where the Rams play in their home stadium. And just like five years ago, they won’t miss out on lifting the Lombardi. — Callahan
Rams over Ravens: This is finally the year that Jackson leads the Ravens to the Super Bowl, but he can’t beat the Rams, who went all-in for a Super Bowl in Sean McVay’s 10th season as head coach. — Kyed
MVP
QB Justin Herbert: Herbert’s playoff track record is one thing, but with an upgrade at offensive coordinator and both of his starting offensive tackles back, expect a monster statistical season from the cannon-armed QB. Drake Maye, Josh Allen will post similar numbers, but the tie in voters’ minds will go to Herbert because of his less explosive set of weapons. — Callahan
QB Drake Maye: He was runner-up last year. Maye should play even better this season with AJ Brown at wide receiver and an improved offensive line. Maye will also be more comfortable playing in Josh McDaniels’ offense for the second straight year, which could lead to fewer turnovers. — Kyed
Offensive Player of the Year
WR Justin Jefferson: Kyler Murray might not be a top-10 quarterback, but he is a significant upgrade over J.J. McCarthy and late-career Kirk Cousins. That means Jefferson will return to All-Pro production and push for some single-season NFL records, so long as he stays healthy. — Callahan
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The Seahawks’ starting wide receiver is special and goes back-to-back with this award. Expect another monster season with Darnold throwing him the ball and nothing in the way of getting targeted heavily once again. — Kyed
Defensive Player of the Year
DE Myles Garrett: Surrounded by the best defensive talent of his career and the best quarterback he’s ever called a teammate, Garrett might set the single-season sack record again. — Callahan
DE Will Anderson: This is the year that Anderson really becomes a household name. He has 11 sacks in 2024 and 12 in 2025. Expect that number to keep rising. — Kyed
Coach of the Year
Jesse Minter: John Harbaugh gives his successor a run for his money, but Minter winning the division as a rookie coach clinches this for him. — Callahan
Jesse Minter: This award typically goes to a new coach. If the Ravens make the playoffs, he could be a shoo-in. — Kyed
Comeback Player of the Year
Patrick Mahomes: The odds-on favorite is the smart bet. — Callahan
Patrick Mahomes: Would the NFL really give it to anyone else? — Kyed