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New Jersey Devils legend Martin Brodeur retired from the NHL with 691 regular-season wins, exactly 116 more than any other netminder in history (Marc-Andre Fleury, 575). Brodeur’s record has survived an era filled with some of the best goaltenders in hockey history, including Henrik Lundqvist, Fleury, Carey Price, Jonathan Quick and now Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Among active netminders, Sergei Bobrovsky is the closest; he needs just 235 more wins. Surely that’ll be a breeze for the Russian netminder, who will be 38 years old when the 2026-27 season starts. (Sarcasm.) However, there is one active goalie whose career has reached a point where the question is at least worth asking. During this slow point of the offseason, social media has adopted the conversation. (Yay, something to talk about that doesn’t have to do with a certain Minnesota Wild defenseman…) Could Vasilevskiy be the one to actually catch him? The 32-year-old Tampa Bay Lightning netminder already has 370 career wins after adding 39 during the 2025-26 season. That’s now nine consecutive 30-win seasons. Vasilevskiy is not close to Brodeur…yet. He still needs another 322 victories to move into first place. When comparing the two at the same point in their careers, the gap isn’t quite as overwhelming as the final totals suggest. The problem is that the deeper you look into what made Brodeur’s 691 wins possible, the harder it becomes to imagine anyone actually catching him. Let’s discuss. Vasilevskiy Is Surprisingly Close to Martin Brodeur’s Pace By the end of his age-31 season, Brodeur had already accumulated 403 career wins. At the same age, Vasilevskiy had 370. That means Vasilevskiy is just 33 wins behind Brodeur’s pace at essentially the same point in their careers. Vasilevskiy actually won a slightly higher percentage of the games he played. However, that’s where the comparison begins to show just how difficult Brodeur’s record will be to reach. Brodeur had already appeared in 70 more games by the same age. That difference is massive. Vasilevskiy hasn’t fallen 33 wins behind because he’s been significantly less successful than Brodeur when he plays. Rather, Brodeur had simply been given far more opportunities to accumulate those wins. The NHL asked way more of its starting netminders during his era…and Brodeur was always up for the challenge. Brodeur played at least 70 games in a season nine times during his career. He appeared in 75 or more games six times and played 77 games in a season on four separate occasions. Those types of workloads have entirely disappeared. The last NHL goaltender to play 70 games in a full season was Cam Talbot in 2016-17. Since then, even the league’s busiest netminders have generally topped out somewhere in the low-to-mid 60s. Teams have changed the way they handle the position. There is a much greater emphasis on keeping starting goaltenders healthy and fresh throughout an 82-game season. Even the league’s best netminders are now routinely given nights off that someone like Brodeur likely wouldn’t have received during his prime. That’s where the Vasilevskiy comparison gets particularly interesting. Unless the NHL suddenly shifts back toward regularly playing its top goaltenders 70-plus times per year, that gap could become even more difficult for Vasilevskiy to overcome. Martin Brodeur’s “Second Career” Shows What Vasilevskiy Is Actually Chasing Here’s where the math starts getting a little ridiculous. Brodeur added another 288 wins after the point Vasilevskiy has now reached. That means more than 41% of Brodeur’s career wins came after his age-31 season. After his age-31 season, he recorded: - 43 wins at age 33 - 48 wins at age 34 - 44 wins at age 35 - 45 wins at age 37 - 31 wins at age 39 He maintained an elite level well into his 30s while receiving a workload that even today’s elite netminders in their prime don’t come close to seeing. Vasilevskiy currently needs another 322 wins to pass him. In other words, from this point forward, Vasilevskiy needs 34 more wins than Brodeur himself accumulated over the remainder of his career. And it goes without saying that barring a miracle, Vasilevskiy will get far fewer starts. There’s another important factor here, too. Brodeur lost his entire age-32 season to the 2004-05 NHL lockout, plus parts of the 1994-95 and 2012-13 seasons for the same reason. With the same usage rates, that means lockouts prevented ~127 Brodeur starts. He would’ve blown 700 out of the water and likely eclipsed 750, too. What Would Vasilevskiy Actually Have to Do? If Vasilevskiy wants to reach 692 by the end of his age-38 season, he would need to average 46 wins per season over the next seven years. Yeah. Good luck. If he plays until age 40, that number drops to just under 36 wins per season across the next nine years. That’s where things at least start becoming theoretically possible. Vasilevskiy has already recorded multiple 35-plus-win seasons and remains one of the NHL’s best goaltenders. But that’s still asking a lot. He would need to remain healthy, continue playing for competitive teams, avoid significant decline and maintain a workload large enough to give himself a realistic opportunity at 35 or 36 wins every year. The longer he plays, obviously, the easier the math becomes. If Vasilevskiy remains in the NHL through his age-42 season, he would need to average approximately 29 wins per season over the next 11 years. That might be the most realistic mathematical path. But playing until age 42 while remaining productive is obviously much easier said than done. And Vasilevskiy has had his share of injuries already. Even if Vasilevskiy remains one of the NHL’s best goaltenders throughout his 30s, he can only accumulate wins if his team – currently Tampa Bay – gives him enough opportunities. Brodeur’s 691 Wins Could Have Been Even More In addition to the lockout, there is another major difference between Brodeur and Vasilevskiy’s eras that makes the comparison even more interesting: Brodeur played 105 games that ended in ties. Under the rules at the time, those games simply ended after overtime. There was no shootout. Neither team won. Obviously, there is no way to know how those games would have played out under today’s rules. But even a conservative hypothetical shows how many potential wins simply weren’t available to him. If Brodeur had won just 40% of those 105 ties under a modern format, he would have added another 42 victories. That would put him at 733 career wins. Conservatively estimating 40% wins for the lockout-missed games, too, would put him at 784. Wow. Again, it would be impossible to determine exactly how many additional wins Brodeur could have accumulated in those missing games. But that’s not really the point. The point is that despite the obstacles, he still got to 691. That makes the 322 wins Vasilevskiy needs feel even more daunting. Why Vasilevskiy Is the Only Active Goalie Worth Discussing While Bobrovsky (456 wins) is currently the closest to Brodeur, he’s also nearly six years older than Vasilevskiy. Even averaging 30 wins per season from this point forward would require nearly eight additional seasons, taking him to age 46. The math gets ugly pretty quickly. Jonathan Quick surpassed 400 career wins but retired. 33-year-old Connor Hellebuyck is probably the only other active goaltender with the talent and sustained level of play necessary to even imagine putting together an extended chase. However, he currently sits at 345 wins and needs another 347. With his play already trending downwards, he would still need an entire Hall of Fame career’s worth of victories. That’s just asking way too much. Younger stars like Igor Shesterkin (187), Jake Oettinger (184) and Ilya Sorokin (154) theoretically have more time remaining than Vasilevskiy. But they’re also starting from significantly further behind. Even if one of them remains among the best netminders in the world for the next decade, it’s difficult to imagine team philosophy suddenly reversing. Then there’s also the fact that goaltending itself isn’t getting any easier. Today’s netminders are facing faster, stronger and more skilled players than ever before. That doesn’t take anything away from what Brodeur accomplished. If anything, it further illustrates just how difficult comparing eras can be. But it does mean the modern goalie chasing 691 isn’t simply trying to replicate Brodeur’s longevity. He’s trying to do it while receiving significantly fewer starts and playing in an environment where maintaining elite performance for 20-plus seasons may be more difficult than ever. That’s what makes Vasilevskiy so interesting. He’s already built enough of a head start to at least make the math worth discussing. So, Is the Wins Record Actually In Jeopardy? Honestly? Maybe. Eh. Probably not. Brodeur’s 691 wins are obviously remarkable. But the circumstances surrounding them might be even more remarkable. The math says Vasilevskiy’s at least close enough at this point in his career to make the conversation worth having. (At least, worth having during this painfully slow summer. Ha.) But if Vasilevskiy can’t do it, who will? Probably nobody…at least in the next couple of decades. Maybe ever…